Cure by age and stage at diagnosis for colorectal cancer patients in North West England, 1997-2004: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Stage and age at diagnosis are important prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer. However, the proportion cured by stage and age is unknown in England. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This population-based study includes 29,563 adult patients who were diagnosed and registered with colorectal cancer during 1997-2004 and followed till 2007 in North West England. Multiple imputation was used to provide more reliable estimates of stage at diagnosis, when these data were missing. Cure mixture models were used to estimate the proportion 'cured' and the median survival of the uncured by age and stage. RESULTS: For both colon and rectal cancer the proportion of patients cured and median survival time of the uncured decreased with advancing stage and increasing age. Patients aged under 65 years had the highest proportion cured and longest median survival of the uncured. CONCLUSION: Cure of colorectal cancer patients is dependent on stage and age at diagnosis with younger patients or those with less advanced disease having a better prognosis. Further efforts are required, in order to reduce the proportion of patients presenting with stage III and IV disease and ultimately increase the chance of cure

No 'cure' within 12 years of diagnosis among breast cancer patients who are diagnosed via mammographic screening: women diagnosed in the West Midlands region of England 1989-2011.

BACKGROUND: We have previously reported that there is little evidence of population 'cure' among two populations of women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. 'Cure' has not yet been examined in the context of screen-detection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined cancer registry data on 19 800 women aged 50-70, diagnosed with a primary, invasive, non-metastatic breast cancer between 1 April 1989 and 31 March 2011 in the West Midlands region of England, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the National Breast Screening Service (NBSS). Follow-up was complete on all women up to 31 July 2012. Analyses were stratified by screening status, age, tumour stage, deprivation and ethnicity. We estimated net survival for the whole cohort and each subgroup. Population 'cure' was evaluated by fitting flexible parametric log-cumulative excess hazard regression models in which the excess hazard of breast cancer death was assumed to be equal to zero after a given follow-up time. RESULTS: There was an overall lack of evidence for 'cure'. Across all subgroups examined, the general pattern was that of a continuous decrease in net survival over time, with no obvious asymptotic tendency within 12 years of follow-up. Model-based analyses confirmed this observation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite dramatic improvements in survival over past decades, diagnosis with breast cancer remains associated with a small but persistent increased risk of death for all groups of women, including those whose cancer is detected asymptomatically. These findings are unlikely to be due to methodological inadequacies. Communication of these long-term consequences of breast cancer among women recently diagnosed and to those considering undergoing screening should take due consideration of these patterns

Changes over time in socioeconomic inequalities in breast and rectal cancer survival in England and Wales during a 32-year period (1973-2004): the potential role of health care.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival are well documented but they vary for different cancers and over time. Reasons for these differences are poorly understood. PATIENTS AND METHODS: For England and Wales, we examined trends in socioeconomic survival inequalities for breast cancer in women and rectal cancer in men during the 32-year period 1973-2004. We used a theoretical framework based on Victora's 'inverse equity' law, under which survival inequalities could change with the advent of successive new treatments, of varying effectiveness, which are disseminated with different speed among patients of different socioeconomic groups. We estimated 5-year relative survival for patients of different deprivation quintiles and examined trends in survival inequalities in light of major treatment innovations. RESULTS: Inequalities in breast cancer survival (921,611 cases) narrowed steadily during the study (from -10% to -6%). In contrast, inequalities in rectal cancer survival (187,104 cases) widened overall (form -5% to -11%) with fluctuating periods of narrowing inequality. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in socioeconomic differences in tumour or patient factors are unlikely explanations of observed changes over time in survival inequalities. The sequential introduction into clinical practice of new treatments of progressively smaller incremental benefit may partly explain the reduction in inequality in breast cancer survival

Do pre-diagnosis primary care consultation patterns explain deprivation-specific differences in net survival among women with breast cancer? An examination of individually-linked data from the UK West Midlands cancer registry, national screening programme and Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: In England and Wales breast cancer survival is higher among more affluent women. Our aim was to investigate the potential of pre-diagnostic factors for explaining deprivation-related differences in survival. METHODS: Individually-linked data from women aged 50-70 in the West Midlands region of England, diagnosed with breast cancer 1989-2006 and continuously eligible for screening, was retrieved from the cancer registry, screening service and Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Follow-up was to the end of July 2012. Deprivation was measured at small area level, based on the quintiles of the income domain of the English indices of deprivation. Consultation rates per woman per week, time from last breast-related GP consultation to diagnosis, and from diagnosis to first surgery were calculated. We estimated net survival using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. RESULTS: The rate of primary care consultations was similar during the 18 months prior to diagnosis in each deprivation group for breast and non-breast symptoms. Survival was lower for more deprived women from 4 years after diagnosis. Lower net survival was associated with more advanced extent of disease and being non-screen-detected. There was a persistent trend of lower net survival for more deprived women, irrespective of the woman's obesity, alcohol, smoking or comorbidity status. There was no significant variation in time from last breast symptom to diagnosis by deprivation. However, women in more deprived categories experienced significantly longer periods between cancer diagnosis and first surgery (mean = 21.5 vs. 28.4 days, p = 0.03). Those whose surgery occurred more than 12 weeks following their cancer diagnosis had substantially lower net survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that although more deprived women with breast cancer display lifestyle factors associated with poorer outcomes, their consultation frequency, comorbidities and the breast cancer symptoms they present with are similar. We found weak evidence of extended times to surgical treatment among most deprived women who were not screen-detected but who presented with symptoms in primary care, which suggests that treatment delay may play a role. Further investigation of interrelationships between these variables within a larger dataset is warranted

Cancer survival differences between South Asians and non-South Asians of England in 1986-2004, accounting for age at diagnosis and deprivation.

BACKGROUND: South Asian migrants show lower cancer incidence than their host population in England for most major cancers. We seek to study the ethnic differences in survival from cancer. METHODS: We described and modelled the effect of ethnicity, time, age and deprivation on survival for the five most incident cancers in each sex in South Asians in England between 1986 and 2004 using national cancer registry data. South Asian ethnicity was flagged using the validated name-recognition algorithm SANGRA (South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm). RESULTS: We observed survival advantage in South Asians in earlier periods. This ethnic gap either remained constant or narrowed over time. By 2004, age-standardised net survival was comparable for all cancers except three in men, where South Asians had higher survival 5 years after diagnosis: colorectal (58.9% vs 53.6%), liver (15.0% vs 9.4%) and lung (15.9% vs 9.3%). Compared with non-South Asians, South Asians experienced a slower increase in breast and prostate cancer survival, both cancers associated with either a screening programme or an early diagnosis test. We did not find differential patterns in survival by deprivation between both ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Considering recent survival trends, appropriate action is required to avoid deficits in cancer survival among South Asians in the near future

Can we screen for pancreatic cancer? Identifying a sub-population of patients at high risk of subsequent diagnosis using machine learning techniques applied to primary care data.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) represents a substantial public health burden. Pancreatic cancer patients have very low survival due to the difficulty of identifying cancers early when the tumour is localised to the site of origin and treatable. Recent progress has been made in identifying biomarkers for PC in the blood and urine, but these cannot be used for population-based screening as this would be prohibitively expensive and potentially harmful. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using prospectively-collected electronic health records from primary care individually-linked to cancer registrations. Our cases were comprised of 1,139 patients, aged 15-99 years, diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2009. Each case was age-, sex- and diagnosis time-matched to four non-pancreatic (cancer patient) controls. Disease and prescription codes for the 24 months prior to diagnosis were used to identify 57 individual symptoms. Using a machine learning approach, we trained a logistic regression model on 75% of the data to predict patients who later developed PC and tested the model's performance on the remaining 25%. RESULTS: We were able to identify 41.3% of patients 60 years were similarly identified at 17 months, with 65% sensitivity, 57% specificity and, 61% AUC. We estimate that combining our algorithm with currently available biomarker tests could result in 30 older and 400 younger patients per cancer being identified as 'potential patients', and the earlier diagnosis of around 60% of tumours. CONCLUSION: After further work this approach could be applied in the primary care setting and has the potential to be used alongside a non-invasive biomarker test to increase earlier diagnosis. This would result in a greater number of patients surviving this devastating disease